I have been watching one number for a year now and it barely moves.

ARC publishes the share of US agency transactions settled through NDC. It was 21.4% in May 2025. It was 21.6% in May 2026. Still 21.6% in June.

Twelve months, twenty basis points.

What makes it interesting to me is that the market itself grew. US agency air sales were up 12% in the first half, to $58.8bn. So NDC volume went up. The share did not.

You also see numbers like corporate NDC bookings up 168% year on year. I think both are true. They are measuring different things. One is a segment growing quickly from a small base, the other is the whole market.

I do not have a clean answer for why it flattened here. My own feeling is that it has less to do with standards and more to do with what happens after the booking, and I will come back to that in a few weeks.

Curious what others are seeing. A plateau, or just a pause?

Sources